Bitcoin continues to be the high-flyer in the digital asset sector and institutional investors are also focussing on the ‘evergreen’ digital asset. A shift in attention towards altcoins could cause them to rise very volatilely.
Thought of the week
Digital Asset News
Altseasons – the seasonal uptrends of altcoins – are likely to return in future cycles, but the magnitude of the moves could be much smaller than usual in the future, according to one crypto analyst.
Altseasons will get smaller with each cycle after the great speculative bubble of 2017,” predicts pseudonymous crypto trader Willy Woo on X on 26 October. He is referring to the big ‘boom’ around initial coin offerings (ICO) seven years ago, which helped many new crypto projects achieve spectacular valuations in a short space of time.
Woo also emphasises that he does not predict that there will be no more altseasons in the future, as he is fairly ‘certain’ that small and medium-sized digital assets will also be swept up by the upward trends of Bitcoin again when its performance declines and investors switch to high-risk altcoins. Typically, crypto traders look for signs such as a global peak in BTC’s market share to shift into altcoins. According to TradingView, Bitcoin’s market share currently stands at 59%, which is just below the predicted peak of 60% and could mean a shift into altcoins soon. Woo argues that the uptrend in altcoins this time could be driven primarily by ‘memecoins’, which he sees as less favourable representatives of the crypto sector.
The Ethereum price is down 7.5 % over the week and is therefore unable to keep up with market leader Bitcoin and other altcoins, which are on the upswing again.
Nevertheless, one analyst is convinced that ETH’s market structure remains positive in the long term, as the price of the second-largest cryptocurrency is currently in an important buying range.
Analysts comment on this on X and emphasise that crypto investors still need to be ‘patient’ with Ethereum for the time being.
They point out that they believe the Ethereum price is still in a buy zone, which makes the current weakness more of an opportunity than a risk.
‘When ETH goes on a climb, it usually pulls the whole market up with it, altcoins are also flying high and the entire crypto ecosystem is fuelled.’
Although the Ethereum price continues to lack positive momentum, the derivatives markets are still very active. Data from VeloData shows that the summarised open interest (OI) for ETH has even reached a new annual high this month.
The summarised open interest is the total of all long and short positions in a market, whereby the open interest quantifies the total value of these positions. In this respect, increased open interest indicates increased movement in an existing trend.
Digital Asset Market
Market report including trading idea
The majority of digital assets experienced slight setbacks or consolidations last week. Only a few assets were able to establish a positive trend (Solana is one of the week’s winners), but the overall market sentiment, especially around Bitcoin, is still very positive. Bitcoin was able to maintain relatively high price levels and is within striking distance of the resistance zone at ~$70,000. Should this mark be broken through sustainably, a new all-time high could be reached in the near future. This would bring Bitcoin in line with the global financial markets, which have been at all-time highs for several months. Ethereum, on the other hand, continues to underperform, not least due to the lack of volume from institutional investors and the large flows towards Solana, which is increasingly becoming a serious competitor to Ethereum.
Chart technology
From a technical chart perspective, Bitcoin is still just below half of the strong resistance zone of $70,000. A volatile breakout above this level and a support retracement would prepare Bitcoin for a new all-time high. If this resistance cannot be broken through, as was the case last week, increased volatility is the most likely scenario, but with positive equity markets behind it, a break above the resistance seems possible at any time.
Bitcoin has rarely seen the current price levels, so it can be assumed that many emotional decisions will be made in the coming days, especially by retail investors. Care must always be taken here, as professional trading strategies always incorporate anti-cyclical thinking, meaning that unplanned volatility could materialise.
The next price targets in the event of a positive development: ~$71,000, ~$73,500, ~$75,000
The next price targets in the event of a negative development: ~$66,500, ~$64,000 ~$62,500
Trading idea
In terms of the risk/reward ratio, Bitcoin currently only offers sensible options for long-term entries; almost all altcoins are currently suitable for medium-term trades, as they are still very ‘underperforming’ in relation to Bitcoin and therefore offer more volatile opportunities.
