US presidential election could cause volatility!

Thought of the week

A close and exciting election is expected in the USA. Donald Trump has recently scored well in the polls, which has tended to drive digital assets, but these polls appear to be very vague. Significantly increased volatility should therefore be expected in the coming days.

Digital Asset News

According to Adam Back, institutional adoption of Bitcoin remains high, making the world’s leading cryptocurrency all the more resilient.
Bitcoin is ‘sufficiently bootstrapped’ in terms of institutional adoption, thanks in large part to US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), explained Adam Back, co-founder and CEO of Blockstream and creator of Hashcash, in an interview with Forbes. He continued: ‘The ETFs mean that the issuing financial institutions are interested in expanding these products and want to keep them on the market. So the lobby of the banks and financial institutions wants these products to exist.’
Back noted that others are also interested in the introduction of Bitcoin, including entire nation states: ‘There are also some other allies. There are sovereign wealth funds and countries that are the first to buy Bitcoin or Bitcoin-related financial products and instruments.’
A brief attack on the all-time high is followed by profit-taking in Bitcoin. The world’s most valuable cryptocurrency has fallen in recent days and is now trading at around ~$68,000. Nevertheless, there are some bullish indicators for November.

Media report that the Bitcoin price initially rose following the publication of disappointing labour market data in the US. The increase of only 12,000 new jobs was well below the expected 106,000, indicating a weakening of the labour market. However, the unemployment rate was in line with expectations at 4.1%. Analysts now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% on 7 November. The US dollar index fell temporarily to 103.6 before stabilising again. Ultimately, Bitcoin gave up its gains for the time being.
Bitcoin’s seasonality in November gives investors hope, especially after the positive performance in October, which saw a rise of around 10%. Historical patterns indicate that the fourth quarter is often bullish for Bitcoin. This seasonal tendency describes regularly occurring trends in certain months, with November often showing a strong price performance. While the past offers no guarantee for future price developments, the November performance to date strengthens hopes for further growth. On average, there were price gains for Bitcoin in November.
Investors will still have a choice between different asset classes in 2024. While property and shares are traditionally among the most popular forms of investment, the younger generation is increasingly focussing on the digital currency market. As a new study reports, crypto is sometimes more popular as an asset class than shares and property in Turkey.
The study first reports that several important events took place in the crypto sector in 2024. Spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in the US and adopted by major financial institutions. Bitcoin halving and the introduction of MiCA regulation characterised the year. Spot Ethereum ETFs were also launched and Turkey passed a law to regulate crypto service providers. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of USD 73,777.
The study then focussed on four different categories: The study reports that awareness of cryptocurrencies has continued to grow in 2024. For example, 99% of respondents have already heard of cryptocurrencies, a constant level compared to 2023 and a significant increase compared to 77% in 2022. Digital assets have therefore not only arrived in the centre of the financial world, but are also playing a key role in shaping it!

Digital Asset Market

Market report including trading idea

The majority of digital assets ultimately experienced a consolidation last week, with Bitcoin failing to reach a new all-time high. The general trend remains positive, but the US presidential election is a very important event for the global financial markets. The outcome seems more uncertain than ever, which could lead to increased volatility around the election. A Trump election victory would have a positive impact on digital assets, at least in the short term. Bitcoin could then test the all-time high again. After minor profit-taking, spot volume is an important stabiliser for the market.

Chart technology

From a chart technical perspective, Bitcoin is now still just below the strong resistance zone of $70,000, while $73,000 was tested during the week. If the market holds this level over the coming week, the chances of a new all-time high are good. The coming days appear to be very important for the trend. Volatility is ‘pre-programmed’ and so the risk management parameters should also be adjusted.

The next price targets in the event of a positive trend: ~$71,000, ~$73,500, ~$75,000

The next price targets in the event of a negative trend: ~$66,500, ~$64,000 ~$62,500

Trading idea

Bitcoin could be an interesting pick for swing trades, while many altcoins offer significantly better risk/reward ratios.