Last month’s market upswing was one that we have been forecasting internally for some time (positive market in Q4 2024), but the current period of increase without significant ‘pauses’ or setbacks tends to be dangerous if appropriate risk management is not adhered to. Suitable hedging and sensible future forecasts are an important tool, especially during this period!
Thought of the week
Digital Asset News
An official from the UK Treasury promised at City & Financial Global’s Tokenisation Summit in London on 21 November that the UK will unveil a draft full regulatory framework for crypto-assets early next year. Some regulations had been expected months earlier, but the general election scuppered these plans along with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government. Keir Starmer’s Labour government, which took office on 5 July, will now present its own version. The Economic Secretary to the Treasury, Tulip Siddiq, said that the regulations would cover stablecoins and staking services as well as cryptocurrencies, Bloomberg reported. Siddiq elaborated: ‘Doing everything in a single phase is easier and just makes more sense.’ The use cases for stablecoins do not lend themselves to the existing regulation of payment services, Siddiq explained. Stablecoin legislation has been in the works since the publication of a series of discussion papers in October 2023, but was never expected earlier than 2025. Thus, the UK is trying to develop a counter-proposal to the EU regulation through MiCA in order not to go into the coming years without a chance.
Bitcoin exchange-traded index funds (ETFs) experienced their fourth best week of investment ever this week, while China-domiciled ETFs saw their largest outflows in history, in another positive sign for global Bitcoin adoption. The US-domiciled spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows totalling USD 2.42 billion in the trading week from 18 to 22 November, the fourth largest week since their launch in January, according to data from Dune.
The increased inflows into Bitcoin ETFs come two weeks after Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election, which triggered a Bitcoin price rally that led to a record monthly candle of over 40% as BTC surpassed the USD 99,000 mark for the first time.
In the same week, China-domiciled ETFs saw their largest outflows of over USD 2 billion, according to a 22 November article by analytics service The Kobeissi Letter: ‘In the past week alone, China ETFs saw outflows of US$2 billion, the largest weekly outflow in history. Despite pandemic-like stimulus measures, recent data suggests that China’s economy is deteriorating.’ As the data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show, Bitcoin has set a new interim record high of USD 99,500. After a brief dip below USD 96,000, the Bitcoin price quickly recovered and is now struggling to climb into the six-digit range for the first time. In this context, crypto analyst Skew predicted a ‘violent breakout’ as soon as the price is able to clear the demand liquidity in the immediate vicinity of the USD 100,000 mark.
‘We continue to see demand shifting higher, which is a very positive market signal,’ he said. He continues: ‘There is a lot of spot supply in the USD 100,000 range. The price trend is currently reducing this supply and this could be followed by a strong breakout.’ Meanwhile, analysts at CryptoQuant are noticing a cautious trend with regard to on-chain data. After the total market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies reached a new record high at the beginning of the month, trading volumes are now falling again. The most recent increase in trading volume on Binance came on 12 November and coincided with the new record high in total market capitalisation, ‘However, trading volume has fallen by just under half since then, while market capitalisation remains in price discovery mode,’ He adds: ‘This decline in trading volume could indicate that the market is taking a breather and that investors are being cautious again for the time being.
Digital Asset Market
Market report including trading idea
The majority of digital assets experienced renewed upswings last week and Bitcoin was able to further extend its historic all-time highs. The new high is ~$99,600 and thus only a few dollars away from the ‘magical’ threshold of $100,000 per Bitcoin for many market participants. Altcoins were able to record larger price gains due to the increasing interest of retail investors, especially at the weekend, before a small correction set in. However, the outlook remains bullish, as we have not yet observed any capital rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins. The market is still in a ‘Bitcoin season’, whereby altcoins are experiencing steady volume increases, but no parabolic price changes are yet taking place. If the global financial markets experience a positive week and Bitcoin does not lose the support zones formed at ~$96,000, a rise above $100,000 is very likely. Whether these price levels can then be maintained in the long term depends in the short term on the spot volume of buyers and in the medium term on the subsequent volume of institutional investors.
Chart technology
From a chart perspective, Bitcoin is well above half of the support zone of ~$90,000 and has already formed weaker support zones at ~$95,000 and is once again just below the $100,000 resistance level. Many market participants ‘wish’ for a rise to 100,000 per Bitcoin, as this would trigger a large media response and herald a new era in terms of price levels. Historically, such resistance levels have always been reached in past bull markets before consolidation or healthy setbacks in the medium term. If Bitcoin consolidates between the aforementioned levels and establishes support zones, the positive trend should be maintained and altcoins in particular should experience upswings.
If only minor profit-taking follows again, there could be further positivity.
The next price targets in the event of a positive trend: ~$100,000, ~$103,500 ~$106,000
The next price targets in the event of a negative development: ~$95,000, ~$92,000 ~$88,000
Trading idea
In the meantime, most altcoins have also experienced positive price changes, which means that new entries are currently characterised by ‘higher’ risk. Positions already held should be held with a slightly wider stop-loss strategy, as increased volatility could occur, but the general trend remains positive.
Weekly overview
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