The dominant geopolitical headline was the announcement of a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, signed electronically by President Trump and Vice President Vance on Monday. The accord includes an immediate cessation of hostilities and commits to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a full reopening expected by Friday. The reaction across traditional markets was pronounced: Brent crude fell more than 4%, the S&P 500 gained 1.7%, the Nasdaq 100 surged 3.1%, and Asian equities jumped over 3%. Bitcoin, by contrast, barely moved in the immediate aftermath, briefly touching a 24-hour high of $67,217 before settling back around $66,045. This was the third ceasefire attempt between the parties, and Bitcoin had fully round-tripped the relief rallies that followed both the April ceasefire and the June 9 strikes. Many traders are waiting for the deal's formal signing in Switzerland on June 19 before treating any gains as durable. Further clouding the picture, Iran's semi-official state media reported that joint Iranian and Omani administration of maritime navigation services was added to the deal in its final minutes, a detail at odds with Washington's insistence on permanently toll-free passage.
On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark overnight call rate by 25 basis points to 1.0% on Tuesday, the highest level since 1995, approved 7-1 by the BOJ's rate-setting board. The decision came with hawkish language pointing to upside inflation risks, including faster-than-anticipated pass-through of elevated oil prices into consumer goods. What surprised markets was a dovish counterweight embedded in the same announcement: the BOJ opted to pause its bond purchase taper, fixing monthly JGB purchases at approximately 2 trillion yen from April 2027. By capping upward pressure on long-end yields, the central bank cushioned financial markets against the most disruptive implications of tighter short-term rates. Bitcoin responded constructively, climbing from around $65,600 to $66,000 in the immediate aftermath, as the bond taper pause was read as an offsetting concession.
ETF flows presented a nuanced picture. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a fifth consecutive week of outflows, though the pace decelerated sharply to $315.8 million, a fraction of the over $1 billion weekly outflows seen in preceding weeks. Monday's session added further complexity: the headline net outflow of $64 million masked a more constructive dynamic, as BlackRock's IBIT actually took in $66 million on the day. The entire net loss came from Grayscale's GBTC, the high-fee legacy trust that has shed assets steadily since the spot ETF launch, which lost $124 million. Strip out GBTC, and Monday was an ordinary session. Meanwhile, ether funds drew $22.5 million, Hyperliquid funds $17.2 million, and XRP and Solana products approximately $2.8 million each, consistent with the day's price action in those assets.
Altcoins broadly outperformed Bitcoin across the week, with XRP gaining around 7%, Solana 6%, and Hyperliquid's HYPE leading the majors at 6.3%. Whether the rotation represents genuine reallocation or a short-term momentum trade will depend on whether those flows hold once GBTC's persistent drag eventually fades. Scale remains important context: Bitcoin ETFs still hold roughly $83 billion in assets against $10 billion for ether and approximately $1 billion each for the XRP, Solana, and Hyperliquid products.
Strategy continued its systematic accumulation, acquiring 1,587 BTC between June 8 and June 14 at an average of $63,024 per coin for roughly $100 million. Total holdings now stand at 846,842 BTC, valued at approximately $56 billion according to executive chairman Michael Saylor, accumulated at a blended average cost of $75,656 per coin and a total outlay of around $64.1 billion including fees.
The broader risk environment was also shaped by SpaceX's landmark market debut. The company raised $85.7 billion after underwriters exercised their option to purchase additional shares, and the stock surged more than 19% in its first full trading day for a two-day gain of 43%. Retail participation was a notable driver, with single-stock selling reaching its heaviest level since November 2023 as investors rotated out of semiconductor names to fund SpaceX purchases. The enthusiasm around SpaceX, alongside the ongoing pivot into artificial intelligence stocks, represents a competing claim on marginal capital that might otherwise have found its way into digital assets.
The focal point will be Wednesday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the first under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh, against a backdrop of inflation running hotter than expected as energy costs from the Iran conflict work through the economy. Markets will also watch whether the U.S.-Iran deal holds as the formal signing date on June 19 approaches and whether the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens as promised. A smooth outcome would likely unlock some of the deferred risk-on sentiment that has kept Bitcoin in check, while any breakdown would reinforce the current caution. On the institutional side, the key question is whether last week's deceleration in ETF outflows marks a genuine turning point, with IBIT's continued inflows offering a constructive early signal.