Historically, the summer months are often quieter and less volatile than the rest of the year, provided there is no market-relevant news. This year could be a little different due to the Ethereum ETF issue, but the falling demand for gold futures could be an indicator of a decline in demand over the next 60 days.
Thought of the week
The introduction of Ethereum spot ETFs in the US could trigger another wave of applications for further altcoin ETFs. However, these are unlikely to be approved as easily as those for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Digital Asset News
The launch of Ethereum spot exchange-traded index funds (ETFs) in the US, which many had expected to take place on 2 July, has now been postponed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
According to Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, the SEC has taken extra time to return S-1 filings submitted by several potential ETF issuers, pushing the launch back to mid-July or later.
A delaying tactic by the SEC on the topic of Ethereum Spot ETFs appears to be out of the question at this time. Minor changes to the S-1 applications are only of a formal nature and will in all likelihood lead to approval.
The approval of the S-1 applications is the second part of a two-stage process required for the launch of the ETFs. The first part involved the approval of the issuers’ 19b-4 forms in May. The SEC approved the 19b-4 filings of eight ETF providers on 23 May.
Unlike the 19b-4 filings, the S-1 filings are not tied to a specific deadline, so issuers are on the SEC’s timetable for review and approval.
The SEC has at least commented on the S-1 filings and asked for re-filing by 8 July. According to Balchunas, this new timeline means that the launch of Ethereum spot ETFs could be delayed until mid-to-late July.
The number of cryptocurrency ATMs installed worldwide has increased by 17.8 per cent in the last 12 months to 38,279, approaching the record of 39,541 set in December 2022
2,564 new cryptocurrency ATMs were installed by 2024, a positive trend compared to the loss of 2,861 machines in 2023
The number increased every month between July 2023 and May 2024.
From May to June, the number of installations fell by 115, but there was a net increase in June with 277 new machines.
Bitcoin Depot, Coinflip and Athena Bitcoin are the leading cryptocurrency ATM operators with 7,543, 5,057 and 2,756 machines respectively.
More than 82 per cent of the world’s cryptocurrency ATMs are located in the United States, while Canada is in second place with 7.7 per cent. This means that everything is in favour of retail investors entering the market.
Runes is a new token standard on the Bitcoin blockchain and this month saw a drop in the average daily transaction count of over 88 per cent from its peak.
Between 22 and 28 June, an average of 37,820 Runes transactions were made per day, a drop of almost 90 per cent from the daily average of 331,040 transactions between 9 and 15 June, according to data from Dune Analytics data from Crypto Koryo.
This includes 23,238 transactions made on 24 June, the lowest level since the protocol was launched at Bitcoin’s fourth halving on 20 April.
Runes transactions only accounted for between 4.9-11.1 per cent of all Bitcoin transactions last week.
The sharp drop in runes transactions has had a significant impact on Bitcoin mining fees, which are still feeling the effects of the last halving. These are now levelling off at normal values again.
Digital Asset Market
Market report including trading idea
The majority of digital assets experienced a slightly negative week, characterised by restraint and lower volumes.
After the media coverage surrounding the Ethereum Spot ETFs cooled down and this event was priced into the short-term price development, the market lacked catalysts for further upswings. Furthermore, there are still rumours that Ethereum Spot ETFs will become tradable in the course of July. A look at the offerings makes it clear that this is a mirror image of Bitcoin Spot ETFs, as the same providers vie for investors’ favour in a fee dispute. However, Grayscale holds a considerable amount of Ethereum, as it did initially, which could lead to similar developments in the first few days of trading, similar to the Bitcoin Spot ETFs, when the great selling pressure initially caused prices to fall before a rapid upswing followed.
On a weekly basis, the overall market performance is around +-0%.
The message for the coming week is: if there are further catalysts for the market, a new trend could be established.
Chart technology
From a technical chart perspective, Bitcoin is now still in a broad trend channel between $60,000 and $70,000. The support zones at ~$60,000 have held firm, although they were breached to the downside in the short term. This shows that volume is quickly generated at key points, which keeps the markets in a positive mood.
The next price targets in the event of a positive trend: ~$65,500, ~$68,000, ~$72,000
The next price targets in the event of a negative trend: ~$60,500, ~$58,000 ~$55,500
Trading idea
Ethereum shorts around the announcement of the spot ETFs could represent a short-term trade, although a subsequent altcoin rally does not seem out of the question. High caps from the top 15 in terms of market capitalisation could then be a good play for July (assuming positivity).
Weekly overview
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