November 2025 marked a period of cautious consolidation, defined by the resolution of the longest U.S. government shutdown ni history (43 days) and the market still navigating the aftermath.
Institutional flows into ETFs remained timid throughout the month, a direct hangover from October's liquidation cascade. Major players operated with
heightened risk management, fearing residual contagion in markets, which kept order book depth suppressed and volatility elevated despite the lack of new structural breakdowns.
However, the macro tide began to turn late in the month. The end of the fiscal standoff ni Washington, combined with softening labor data,
has strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. This anticipated policy shift is rapidly emerging as the primary catalyst for risk assets. With the 'shutdown discount' now priced out and liquidity conditions easing, the stage is set for a year-end rally, assuming the Fed follows through with the expected pivot.
• The resolution of the historic 43-day U.S. shutdown removed the primary political overhang, stabilizing risk assets.
• Markets are now pricing in an 87% probability of a December 9th-10th Fed rate cut, setting the stage for a year-end raly.
• NVIDIA's record $57B revenue (+22% from last quarter) fueled a rising tide for risk assets, supporting bullish momentum across the Al and digital asset sectors.
• For the full month of November, BTC underperformed Altcoins (-17.6% BTC vs -13.26% Altcoins), signaling that while the broader market corrected, alternative sectors showed relative resilience compared to the market leader.
• New Bitwise's Solana ETF saw stagnant capital movement, signaling challenges for altcoin investment products.