June marked a sharp reversal: the AI-equity trade that had pressured crypto through May unwound violently in the final ten days, with the Nasdaq falling over 6% from its June 2 record and semiconductors shedding over a trillion dollars in single sessions. For the first time this year, crypto and tech sold off together rather than rotating, suggesting reassessment rather than abandonment of the year's dominant trade.

Bitcoin bore the brunt, falling from roughly $73,100 through $70,000, $65,000, and $60,000 to close near $59,100, its lowest since October 2025 and about 53% off the October high. Ethereum dropped below $1,600 and Solana into the mid-$70s, both extending underperformance versus Bitcoin. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record weekly outflows near $1.8 billion in early June, pushing year-to-date flows negative.

The macro backdrop turned more hawkish. Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting (June 16-17) held rates at 3.50-3.75% but lifted the median year-end dot to 3.80% from 3.40%, implying a hike rather than a cut, with 17 of 18 participants seeing upside inflation risk. Yields and the dollar jumped, pressuring risk assets broadly.

Still, structural signals held up. The June 17 Trump-Pezeshkian memorandum set a fragile path toward ending the Iran conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. More notably, stablecoin supply held near $312 billion despite falling token prices, evidence that on-chain dollar demand may be decoupling from speculative appetite. The month closes cautious, but with speculative excess largely cleared, the open question is whether June marked the cycle low.

Key Takeaways

• SpaceX Debut, Tech Wobbles: SpaceX's June 12 Nasdaq listing briefly made Musk the first trillionaire before reversing sharply; alongside it the Nasdaq fell over 6% from its June 2 high and semiconductors gave back more than $1 trillion in single sessions. The capital that left crypto for tech in May did not rotate back, and both sold off together
• ETF Outflows Build: US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their largest single week outflow on record near $1.8 billion in early June, pulling year to date net flows negative. Cumulative inflows since the January 2024 launch remain near $51.
• Bitcoin Slips Below $60,000: Bitcoin closed June near $59,100, its lowest since October 2025 and roughly 53% off its high. Ethereum eased below $1,600 and Solana into the mid $70s.
• Warsh Turns Hawkish: At his first FOMC meeting, the median 2026 dot moved from an implied cut to a hike (3.40% to 3.80%), with 17 of 18 participants seeing upside inflation risk. Markets began pricing meaningful odds of an October hike.
• Hormuz Path Stalls: A June 17 US-Iran memorandum set a path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but the truce frayed late in the month as renewed strikes left implementation unsettled. Oil stayed volatile rather than settling at pre war lows.