Market Pulse: July 2026

Executive Summary

June marked a sharp reversal: the AI-equity trade that had pressured crypto through May unwound violently in the final ten days, with the Nasdaq falling over 6% from its June 2 record and semiconductors shedding over a trillion dollars in single sessions. For the first time this year, crypto and tech sold off together rather than rotating, suggesting reassessment rather than abandonment of the year's dominant trade.

Bitcoin bore the brunt, falling from roughly $73,100 through $70,000, $65,000, and $60,000 to close near $59,100, its lowest since October 2025 and about 53% off the October high. Ethereum dropped below $1,600 and Solana into the mid-$70s, both extending underperformance versus Bitcoin. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record weekly outflows near $1.8 billion in early June, pushing year-to-date flows negative.

The macro backdrop turned more hawkish. Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting (June 16-17) held rates at 3.50-3.75% but lifted the median year-end dot to 3.80% from 3.40%, implying a hike rather than a cut, with 17 of 18 participants seeing upside inflation risk. Yields and the dollar jumped, pressuring risk assets broadly.