Spotlight: US-China Trade Truce in Focus
The digital assets market is navigating mixed signals amid easing geopolitical tensions and domestic economic hurdles. Bitcoin dipped below $108,000 today (November 3rd) and has been in a slight downtrend over the past 7 days, declining ca. 6-7% on the week.
This market reaction is somewhat surprising given the recent US-China trade agreement following the Trump-Xi summit. The deal has paused US tariffs on Chinese imports for another year, halted plans for 100% duties on certain exports, and sees China lifting restrictions on critical minerals like rare earths and gallium while curbing chemical shipments to North America. This truce should strengthen global trade and, in theory, support risk assets, incl. Equities and digital assets. However, thus far, the market has reacted cautiously.
At the same time, the ongoing US government shutdown adds uncertainty, delaying key data releases and complicating Fed assessments. Fed speakers, including Governor Michael Barr and New York Fed President John Williams, are set to address the outlook this week, likely reiterating caution amid persistent inflation risks.
Bitcoin: Technical Indecision Signals Mounting Hesitation
Bitcoin's monthly chart shows indecision at record highs. October's candle captured a massive range from $103,600 to over $126,000—wider than the preceding three months combined—yet ended with only a 3.7% decline. This "indecision candle" reflects buyers' inability to sustain momentum.
Source: CryptoQuant, Teroxx
The monthly MACD histogram is producing smaller peaks rather than new highs, creating a bearish divergence similar to Bitcoin's 2021 top. This technical weakness persists despite bullish macro news, suggesting structural hesitation at key resistance.
Bitcoin currently trades around $107,300 after today's 2.5% dip. The US dollar index's potential reversal adds further pressure, historically correlated with Bitcoin weakness. If momentum continues fading, BTC could pull back toward $100,000 or lower before attempting its next move. A break above $116,000 would be needed to restore the bullish case.
Risk appetite remains fragile across digital assets, with Ether sliding to $3,700 today alongside Bitcoin's weakness, erasing earlier weekly gains. Gold has edged lower to $4,002 per ounce amid profit-taking but boasts over 50% year-to-date gains.
Source: CryptoQuant, Teroxx
Looking ahead: Tech Earning and Key Data Releases
Markets are poised for potential swings from two fronts this week.
First, major tech earnings in the US from Palantir, AMD, IonQ, and others will be parsed for AI spending trends. Any signs of slowdown could pressure indices.
Second, amid the shutdown, US economic data like ISM PMIs and employment reports will offer insights into growth resilience. Globally, BOE and RBA rate decisions could influence sentiment, with the dollar near three-month highs adding headwinds for digital assets.
